Is Recession Looming Or Not?
Headlines and media reports recently have sounded a dim drum-beat. In contrast to this negative sentiment, we note that today the Conference Board published their Leading Economic Index (LEI) results for July. The LEI is their measure of business activity, which rose 0.5% for the month. This report followed two consecutive months of negative results. We would call that mildly—though not definitively—encouraging. This rise for
Quick Take: Is Recession More Likely Now? Update on the Inverted Yield Curve
Investors are expressing rising concern about potential recession next year, based on the inverted yield curve in the bond market. We did a comprehensive analysis in March (click here to access that report), providing our view on how to interpret the yield curve, what history tells us about inversion, and how stocks have behaved over the past seven periods of inversion. Our conclusions from that report remain
Smart Money Matters: What the New Retirement Savings Bill Might Mean for You
This summer has seen much popular press coverage of Congress’s attempt to pass legislation improving and modernizing retirement savings plans. Known as the SECURE Act, short for Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act of 2019, the goal of the legislation is to expand the use of retirement savings plans and to update the current rules that dictate contribution and age limitations. Among several
Trade War: Brief Update and Perspective
The US-China trade war entered its 16th month and doesn’t look to be ending soon. It continues to be a wildcard from an investment perspective—extremely important in the medium term but impossible to predict. It is therefore not a direct input into our investment process, but it does have an indirect impact by affecting the pricing models that drive our fundamental decisions across asset groups and
Long Term View: How to Think about Investment Winners and Losers
Investors tend to focus on the near term—basically six months ahead; but such short time frames tend to make investors miss the forest for the trees. As we explain below, winners historically haven’t persisted indefinitely, losers usually haven’t failed forever, and reversion to the mean is a powerful, fundamental concept that underpins our long-term investment strategy. A 20-YEAR LOOK, BY DECADE Currently, popular investment strategy
Smart Money Matters: Gifting Techniques for the Savvy Taxpayer
Giving to charity is great; giving away your tax deduction is not. In this first comment in a series we call "Smart Money Matters," Senior VP and Portfolio Manager Richard Bean provides his thoughts on strategies to help optimize your charitable giving and tax benefits, in light of the recent changes in tax law. The recent changes to the tax law have created an environment