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Over the last two months of 2023, the S&P 500 jumped 16%, small stocks leapt 24%, and yields on the 10-year Treasury dropped from 5% to almost 3.8%--huge moves in a short period.

To many people, judging from economic and political news since the summer, the world may seem more uncertain than ever.

Over the past three months, the economy has held up better than many expected. Rising rates have helped bring inflation down and slow economic activity enough, without heavy job losses or increased stress on the banking system.

If you’re an optimist, earnings season was broadly encouraging for investors. Companies did better than their lowered expectations and held to the view that trends remain better than feared.

The US government hit the ceiling on its ability to borrow money in January, and since that time it has used special accounting maneuvers to pay its obligations.

Here’s our read on the stability of the financial system, the status of the fight against inflation, and the outlook for the economy. We recognize there are many moving parts, making assessments difficult.

Over the weekend, our research team actively monitored the fallout of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, the second-largest bank failure in US history.

Last year was a challenging one for the 60/40 portfolio—a traditional investment strategy that invests roughly 60% of your assets in stocks and 40% in bonds.